The Red and Black

Issue date: 8/29/08 Section: Opinions

JOSH MOYNIHAN

First, I want to throw my congratulations onto the growing pile the 2008 football team has received for its well-earned preseason No. 1 ranking. That said, fans need to do a little expectation management for the upcoming "dream" season.

The preseason No. 1 ranking is a reflection of the Bulldogs having the nation's most talented team on paper in the opinion of college football writers and football coaches. In no way does this ranking reflect where the Bulldogs are predicted to finish the season.

One surprising prediction already has been made for Georgia's 2008-09 season. A majority of sportswriters covering the SEC picked Florida over the Bulldogs when asked who would be playing for the SEC Championship in December. This outcome would leave Georgia with little hope for a national title.

In today's BCS system, in which voters and computer rankings determine who plays for college football's championship rather than deciding it on the field, teams generally need three things to win college football's crown: tremendous skill, a favorable schedule and a little bit of luck. Georgia has only two out of three.

There's no doubting the skill of this year's team. (See Georgia's 2007 highlight film and list of returning starters for confirmation.)

As for the little bit of luck (preparation meeting opportunity), trust me when I tell you that growing up a Georgia Tech fan taught me Georgia nearly always finds luck to win the close games.

Whether it's Michael Johnson's fourth and 15 catch to propel the Bulldogs to a 2002 win over Auburn, Tony Taylor scooping and scoring against Georgia Tech in 2006 or a face full of hobnailed boot delivered to Volunteer country, when I watch Georgia, I wait for them to make the big play.

Skill? Check. Luck? Check. But the thing the Bulldogs have that will prevent the 2008 dream season so many anticipate is the nation's toughest schedule.

Just look at it. Ten of the 12 games are against teams that played in bowl games last season. Six of those 10 games are away from Sanford Stadium. Two of those road games are against the previous two national championship winners - in back-to-back weeks! Survive that and the Bulldogs likely will play Alabama, Auburn or LSU again in the SEC Championship. Not exactly the red carpet of schedules.

One thing I have heard around campus based on last year's improbable LSU national title win is that the Bulldogs will play for the national title with one or even two losses. This just isn't true. What happened for LSU last year was something that hadn't happened since the BCS began in the 1998-99 season. It became the first two-loss team to play in a BCS National Championship Game. A one-in-10-year shot at losing two games and making the title game shouldn't make fans so comfortable with Georgia's chances. I don't have to go to the math department to know the odds of a 10 percent chance repeating itself is a one in 100.

The truth is that just one loss at the wrong time could end Georgia's SEC and national title hopes. A loss to Florida, the game coming a week after playing at LSU, likely would mean Florida would have to lose two SEC games and Georgia win all other conference games for the Bulldogs even to have a chance at an SEC Championship. No SEC Championship more than likely means no national title shot, as fans learned last season.

I am not saying it can't be done and anyone who knows me knows I will be in the stadium or in front of the television every step of the way, but a national title is too far off to even think about right now. Dreams can be accomplished by hard-work, determination and a little bit of luck.

Maybe 2008 will be a dream season. I hope it is. But remember the Bulldogs bringing home the national title at season's end is just that right now, no more than a dream.


- Josh Moynihan is a senior from Marietta majoring in newspapers.

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