The Red and Black

Issue date: 7/17/08 Section: Opinions

KEN CENNA

The plain truth we are confronting today is this: Cheap energy in any form - oil, gas, whatever - is gone forever. Expensive gasoline is here to stay. But from observing many of the media's so-called experts, it seems we as a society have not acknowledged this fact.

It has been said that when you've dug yourself into a hole, the first thing you should do is stop digging, but our economy doesn't seem to be doing this yet.

As I was thinking about this, it struck me that this inability, or refusal, to accept our new reality parallels the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grieving. We are literally grieving the loss of cheap energy. Allow me to explain.

The first step in the grieving process is denial. Since the marked upswing in the price of oil, denial has become manifest in the form of two commonly thrown-out buzzwords - "bubble" and "speculation." The cyclical nature of markets, it is said, dictates that the huge jump in the price of this commodity is merely a bubble, created by a mix of temporary factors that will abate.

This fallacy is as ridiculous as it is dangerous because demand for the product has simply outpaced production (supply). Demand will continue to rise, thanks to developing nations, especially China and India, and production will remain steady until soon production levels actually decrease. This scenario is referred to as Peak Oil.

The denial continues. Phantom speculators are artificially pushing up the prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is withholding vast amounts of oil to maintain prices. Big Oil is greedy. The Saudis, Hugo Chavez, Iran, the War.

But I think the denial phase is ending. People are beginning to recognize that prices are not artificially high, and we are now entering the second phase: anger. House investigations, media pundits' cries of horror and other witch hunts are now beginning to appear.

Additionally, workers in industries hit particularly hard by high gas prices are threatening or actually striking: 10,000 Spanish fishermen converged on Madrid to protest rising fuel costs; French fishermen have shut down ports and marched in Paris; and truckers all over the globe are threatening to park their vehicles. Don't expect it to end soon.

We are just now starting to see hints at the third stage of grief, bargaining. Already, calls for a "Manhattan Project"-type effort to solve the energy crisis are being heard. America will attempt anything it can in order to keep up its massively wasteful and intensive energy diet. Ethanol. No? What about the hydrogen economy? Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels, anything.

But the reality is there is no real substitute for oil; its production is peaking, and it is never going to be cheap again.

Before we as a society can accept this, we have one more stage of grieving to visit: depression. This should require no explanation.

Finally, after depression comes acceptance. Cheap energy is gone, forever. So long, it was fun, but life goes on. No more driving across town to buy a gallon of milk, no more 30-mile commutes to work just to own a big house in the suburbs. Auf Wiedersehen SUV. Gone will be many of our wasteful uses of energy, as we adapt to this new reality.

Unfortunately, our current economic thinking is fully predicated upon the idea that energy is and will remain a cheap good. The time to act was yesterday. Now we must adjust ourselves to an energy-scarce existence before circumstances do it for us, and much more roughly. When it comes to our oil addiction, it's time to kick the habit.

- Ken Cenna is a senior from Dahlonega majoring in history.

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