The Red and Black

Issue date: 10/7/08 Section: Variety

GURIAN

Tonight, Paul-Henri Gurian, an associate professor of political science, will host a screening of the presidential debate. As an expert on presidential primaries and campaign strategy, Gurian will preview the debate and hold a discussion after it ends. This election has been called one of the most important in history, and Gurian shares his thoughts on what could make or break a successful campaign.

Q: How is a winner determined after a debate?

A: Most presidential debates have no clear winner. By this point in the campaign, only about ten percent of the people are still undecided and perhaps another ten percent are persuadable. So most people watching the debate will have their preference reinforced. Sometimes one candidate does so well or says something really unfortunate, and that persuades some undecided voters. In 1980, for example, President Carter made a remark that seemed childish and Governor Reagan had a few really good lines.

Q: Do you see any strengths or weaknesses for both sides of the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees?

A: There are now more Democrats than Republicans, but the Democrats are somewhat divided. Domestic issues such as health care favor Obama. International issues such as national security favor McCain. But most party-oriented and issue-oriented voters have already made up their minds. Increasingly, the focus is on candidate evaluation.

McCain's strengths are his experience, including his military service. However, there are concerns about his age and his health. Obama's strengths are his charisma and the perception that he represents change, a new approach.

However, he has relatively little national experience and his race is a concern for some voters. Currently, the nature of the times is bad. The economy is very weak - unemployment, foreclosures, gas prices ... when the economy is weak, voters tend to vote against the incumbent party. One of Obama's main themes is that McCain would just like Bush - another four years of bad times. McCain is trying to counter that by saying he's a maverick, that he opposes many of Bush's policies and that he would bring change to Washington.

Q: What is unique about this election?

A: The primaries were unusual in several ways. For one thing, the early frontrunner almost always gets the nomination - that didn't happen in either party this year. Obviously, the general election is unique in that either an African-American or a woman will be elected. In terms of the Electoral College, there's a real possibility that several traditionally Republican states - for example, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado - may vote Democratic for the first time in decades. That remains to be seen.

Q: Why is there such hype and activity in today's youth that hasn't been seen in past elections? Is it something distinguishable?

A: The interest, activity and enthusiasm of young people in this election is extraordinary. I can't recall anything similar since the 1972 campaign. I don't know if it's Obama's generational appeal [because] under-30 voters support Obama almost 2-to-1, or that the issues, Iraq, economy [and the] environment are so important to young people.

Q: Is negative campaigning necessary?

A: Negative campaigning and advertising is not necessary, but it tends to be effective. People don't like it but they respond to it nonetheless. Negative ads hurt both the target and the sponsor. Sometimes candidates wait till late in the campaign to unleash negative attacks - when there's little time to respond effectively.

Q: In which areas does each candidate need improvement in order to win?

A: Obama needs to keep the focus on the economy and that he would bring about change.

McCain needs to separate himself from Bush and cast doubts on Obama's character and policies. McCain needs to change the dynamics, because if things continue as they are now, Obama will win. Two big questions will not be known till Election Day: How many people will not vote for an African-American? How many new voters will actually turn out? The answers to those questions may determine who wins the big swing states ... that will likely decide whether Obama or McCain is the next president.

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